A COUPLED CLIMATE–INSECURITY MODEL: MATHEMATICAL INSIGHTS INTO THE DYNAMICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS AND VIOLENT CONFLICT

Abstract

Insecurity and climate change are two of the 21st century's most urgent worldwide issues. The escalation of violent conflict, especially in weak states, has been associated with rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, and resource constraint. However, there are still few formal models that adequately capture the interactions among armed group activity, economic fragility, and climate stress. This paper suggests a dynamical systems model that links population security, adaption strategies, and conflict intensity with climate stress indicators. We use synthetic yet policy-relevant data structures to simulate the model under baseline and adaptation-enhanced scenarios. The findings show that while adaptation efforts reduce escalation, increased climate stress raises conflict occurrence through resource scarcity and livelihood shocks. Similar to epidemic thresholds in disease dynamics, a calculated conflict reproduction number (R_conf) establishes an instability threshold. Our results demonstrate the value of mathematical modeling in predicting the dangers of insecurity under climate change, with immediate implications for humanitarian planning, peacebuilding, and climate policy.